Contrary to what many people would say, poker is in fact gambling. While there is a large amount of skill involved, there is also an element of luck that can't be ignored. Therefore, when deciding on a course of action in a poker game, you should do what you would do for any other wager (or investment, for that matter): determine your risk vs. your reward.

Today I'd like to discuss the concept of pot odds. Put simply, pot odds are just a way of expressing risk vs. reward as a ratio. For a simple example, if you had to risk $10 to win a total of $50, your potential payout (your pot odds) would be 50:10, or in other words, 5 - 1. What this means in practice is that you would need to win this particular wager 1 out of every 6 times to break even; any more than that shows a profit. (To make this clear, you could lose your $10 five times, for a total of $-50, but if you win the sixth time you win the $50 back.)

There is also such a thing as implied odds - and by extension, reverse implied odds. When considering the payout of any given wager, if there are still betting rounds to come you should always consider those future bets you may win (implied) or lose (reverse implied). This is not always easy to do, and quite frankly is an ability that most people overestimate within themselves. Paying close attention to your opponent's styles and betting tendencies is crucial for determining what they may or may not do in response to your actions.

For an example of implied odds: if you're risking $10 to win a $50 pot (5 - 1), but there's one card (and one betting round) still to come, your pot odds might change. If you win on the end, and can squeeze an extra $25 out of your opponent, then you've risked $10 to win $75 - or 7.5 - 1. Implied odds generally change a fold to a call.

On the other hand, if it's your opponent that might win on the end instead, and you think you might have to pay another $25 to find out that it's happened, then you face reverse implied odds. Your total risk would then be $35 instead of $10, and your odds would be $50 - $35, or about 1.4 - 1. Reverse implied odds generally change a call to a fold.

In order to utilize pot odds, you must compare them to your options and try to determine the most profitable play. You can compare pot odds to any decision that you make, so long as you can quantify your choices. If there are more cards to come, you can compare your pot odds to your winning chances. If you're bluffing, you can compare your pot odds to the chance your opponent will fold. If you're betting with the best hand, you can use pot odds to determine the most profitable bet size. Let's address each of these in turn.

If there are more cards to come. There's an old saying that goes, "Never draw to an inside straight." While this is frequently good advice, there are in fact times where it would be terrible advice. Pretend for a moment that you're on the turn, with one card left to come. You need a 6 - and only a 6 - to complete the winning nut straight. For this situation, the odds of hitting this "inside straight draw" are about 11-1. This means you will only win 1 out of every 12 tries, but if that one time is large enough to offset the many, smaller losses, than you've shown a profit in the long run - and that's what it all about. For this example, if you were to get a payout larger than 11 - 1 (perhaps a $10 bet to win a $150 pot, or, 15 - 1) then you should call to see if you hit the straight.

If you're bluffing. Anytime you throw a bet out there, you are giving your opponent odds, and at the same time are offering yourself odds. For example, if you are thinking of bluffing at a $200 pot, betting $200 would mean your opponent would have to call 1 out of every 2 times for you to break even (once you lose your $200 bet, once you win the $200 pot). If instead you risk $150 on your bluff, you offer yourself better odds: if your opponent still only calls 1 out of 2 times, now you show a profit (once you lose $150 and once you win $200.) A good extension of this concept is that most people who fold for $200 will also fold for $150. Many of those people will fold for $140, as well. How far can you stretch it? It depends on your opponents - but don't risk more than you need to show a profit.

If you're betting with the best hand. Let's say all of the cards are out, and you have the best possible hand. If you're playing no-limit, you have a wide range of bet sizes to choose from. In order to determine the best amount to "milk your opponent" for, you can compare the odds you're offering to the chances that he'll call a particular sized bet. Again, knowing you opponent's habits is an especially important concept here. For a simple example, let's say you're considering two different bet sizes: a $300 bet and a $1000 bet. Because the hypothetical pot is about $600, let's assume you can make a decent estimate along the lines of this: your opponent will call the $300 bet 80% of the time, but he will call the $1000 bet only 20% of the time. In this case, the smaller bet would be correct - 20% of $1000 is only $200, while 80% of $300 is $240.

It's not always easy to do math on the fly, but being able to make a decent guess as to a possible outcome will always help to clarify things. Don't be afraid to think through your decisions; a good guess is better than nothing, and the more you watch your opponents, the better your guesses will get. But no matter what option you're considering, when you're dealing in probability, it's always important to understand the stakes.

Sam @ Power Poker Course.




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